High level plan to go from a 3:40 marathon to a sub 3:00 marathon

As I see it this goal is relatively simple.  All that is required is to execute on the following:

  1. Achieve a level of aerobic fitness that allows me to run 4:16/km comfortably enough.
  2. 1. above likely requires keeping myself healthy and almost injury free for the next two years.
  3. Execute on a nutrition plan on the day.
  4. Execute on a peak and taper before goal race.

The following are all necessary in my mind as milestones in order to allow myself to train in the appropriate way to run this time.  This suitably ambitious goal is going to require suitably ambitious, consistent training over a long period of time given that I am nowhere near sub 3 hour shape right now.

  1. Ability to churn out easy kilometers at sub 145bpm heart rate whenever I want.  This is my barometer for being able to run my easy runs easy enough which should allow me to increase my weekly mileage sufficiently without the mileage alone excessively stressing my body.
  2. Increase weekly mileage initially to 80km/week consistently for three months, then ultimately to 100km/week in 2021.
  3. Run two weekly workouts, one longish interval (e.g. 6-8 x 1km) and one 20min-40min tempo.  If this gets boring occasionally can mix this up, but these two should form the bread and butter.
  4. Cycle over 4 week cycles with three escalating harder weeks, followed by an easier week to absorb the training.
  5. Cycle over 4 months with a couple of weeks of easier training to freshen up and absorb harder training.
  6. Strengthen my core to ensure injury resilience and that it is not a limiting factor in my running performance.
  7. Develop, test and practice a marathon nutrition plan.
  8. Run a sub 20 min 5km before September 2020 (do a time trial in late Feb for a baseline).
  9. Run a sub 40 min 10km and a sub 90min half marathon in 2020.
  10. Never get excessively tired, rather take one day off and miss weekly mileage by a bit than be forced to take multiple days off or struggle to complete workouts.  In fact for most of the program I should feel very fresh and energised.
  11. Lose about 7kgs to get to 73 or 74kgs.  Not the most fun part of this, but necessary.
  12. Work at least two short cross training aerobic sessions weekly once 1. is achieved.  This is in order to build sufficient aerobic base as safely as possible.
  13. Regular prehab addressing all potential injuries.  
  14. Strides twice a week to help develop some speed.
  15. Find training partners for at least some of the sessions.

Initial Weekly Plan

This is the training plan I initially intend to work off for the next few months to slowly build up my fitness and slowly lose a little bit of weight.  This is not going to get me in sub 3 hour shape by any means but I see it as a necessary building block in order to be able to complete and absorb the next, slightly more challenging phase and that should prepare me for the next and so on. 

All easy runs, all targeting keeping heart rate below 145bpm at all times and focus is on lowering average heart rate over time rather than increasing speed at specific heart rate.

Monday: Rest/Core exercises

Tuesday: 15km easy flat

Wednesday: 15km easy hills

Thursday: 10km easy flat

Friday: Rest/Core

Saturday: 15km easy, whichever route I feel like

Sunday: 22km easy, whichever route I feel like

Total: 77km all easy

On top of this I should aim to do a few strides twice a week.

There is very little daily variation and no specific training.  The intention for this phase is just to build fitness and resilience to a training schedule in as low risk, low stress way as possible.  Ideally after an initial breaking in period, I should feel energised and if anything frustrated at how easy training feels.  There should be no trepidation about going out the door in the morning as it should be like going for a walk in the park.  

The major goals of this period are to really build the muscle memory for running easy as measured by a low and controllable heart rate.  Ideally by the end of the 12 weeks my average flat run should average around 137bpm and hilly run 140bpm.  My second goal of this period is to start losing a little weight in order to build efficiency.  Losing 3kgs over the 12 weeks should be easily achievable without much sacrifice.  The third goal is simply to not pick up any niggles as the real training only starts after this period.

If all is progressing as planned then I will attempt a 5km time trial in the last few weeks to gauge my progress.  I should not expect too much from this first piece of feedback from my training plan as I have not done a single anaerobic session, but it will provide some useful feedback in hindsight for future training as well as help me to get to know better how my body responds to lots of easy running.  Note to self, do not be disappointed if I only show marginal improvement from my first time trial, the gains will come with longer term consistency and quality work.